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ခန္ ့မွန္းခ်က္မ်ားတြင္ မုန္တိုင္း 01B(ONE) သည္ အေနာက္ေျမာက္ဘက္သို ့တစ္နာရီ ၁၄ မိုင္ႏွဳန္းျဖင့္ ေရြ႕
လ်ားခဲ့ၿပီး ေမလ ၁၁ ရက္ ဝဝ၃ဝ နာရီမွ ေနာက္ နာရီေပါင္း ၁၂ဝ မတိုင္မီ (ေမလ ၁၆ ရက္ – ျမန္မာစံေတာ္
ခ်ိန္ နံနက္ ဝဝ၃ဝ နာရီတြင္) ျမန္မာ-ဘဂၤလားေဒ့ရွ္နယ္စပ္ကို ျဖတ္ေက်ာ္၍ကုန္းတြင္းသို ဝင္ေရာက္ႏိုင္မည္
ျဖစ္ေၾကာင္း ခန္ ့မွန္း ထားပါသည္။
မုန္တိုင္းငယ္ 01B(ONE) သည္ လာမည့္ ၃၆ နာရီအတြင္း (ေမလ - ၁၂ ရက္ ျမန္မာစံေတာ္ခ်ိန္ ေန ့လည္ ၁၂၃ဝ နာရီ မတိုင္မီ) အဆင့္-၁ (CAT-1) ဆိုင္ကလုန္းမုန္တိုင္း အဆင့္သို ့ ေရာက္ရွိမည္ျဖစ္ၿပီး မုန္တိုင္းဗဟို
တြင္ ေလတိုက္ႏွန္း တစ္နာရီ ၆၅ ေနာ္တီကယ္မိုင္ အထိ ရွိႏိုင္ကာ တည္ေနရာ ေျမာက္လတၱီတြဒ္ 8.6N ႏွင့္ အေရွ႕ေလာင္ဂ်ီတြဒ္ 88.0E သို႕ ေရာက္ရွိမည္ ျဖစ္ေၾကာင္း ခန္ ့မွန္းထား ပါသည္။
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| မုန္တိုင္းလမ္းေၾကာင္းအား ထိန္းခ်ဳပ္သည့္ steering layers မ်ားအေျခအေနျပပံု |
ႏိုင္ငံ ေကာ့ေသာင္းၿမိဳ ့အေနာက္ေတာင္ဘက္မိုင္ ၅၆ဝခန္ ့၊ကိုကိုးကၽြန္းေလဆိပ္၏ ေတာင္ - အေနာက္
ေတာင္ဘက္၅၁၅ မိုင္ခန္ ့၊ပုသိမ္ၿမိဳ ့၏ ေတာင္အေနာက္ေတာင္ဘက္ ၇၁၅ မိုင္ခန္ ့ဘဂၤလား ပင္လယ္ေအာ္ အေရွ ့ေတာင္ပိုင္းတြင္ တည္ရွိေနၿပီး ပိုမို အင္အားေကာင္းလာကာ အေနာက္ေျမာက္ဘက္သို ့ ဆက္လက္
ေရြ ့လ်ားႏိုင္မည္ဟု ခန္ ့မွန္းရပါသည္။ ျမန္မာစံေတာ္ခ်ိန္နံနက္ဝ၈၃ဝ နာရီတြင္ရရွိသည့္ ေရခိုးေရေငြ ့ပါဝင္
မႈ ႏွဳန္းျပ ၿဂိဳလ္တုပံုအရ မုန္တိုင္း၏ အျပင္ rain band မ်ားသည္ ဧရာဝတီ တိုင္းေဒသႀကီး ေတာင္ပိုင္း ေဒသ
မ်ားသို ့ စတင္၍ ေရာက္ရွိေနၿပီ ျဖစ္ေၾကာင္း ေတြ ့ရပါသည္။
မုန္တိုင္းငယ္ 01B ONE
11 May 2013 0000Z (ေမလ ၁၁ ရက္၊ ျမန္မာစံေတာ္ခ်ိန္ နံနက္ ဝ၆၃ဝ နာရီ)
Location: 7.0 91.0
Winds: 40 knots
Central Pressure: 993 hPa
မုန္တိုင္းငယ္ 01B ONE
10 May 2013 1800Z (ေမလ ၁၁ ရက္၊ ျမန္မာစံေတာ္ခ်ိန္ နံနက္ ဝဝ၃ဝ နာရီ)
Location: 6.1 91.9
Winds: 35 knots
Central Pressure: 996 hPa
JTWC TEXT (ေမလ ၁၁ ရက္ နံနက္ ဝဝ၃ဝ နာရီ)
102100Z POSITION NEAR 6.4N 91.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 960 NM SOUTHWARD OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVING CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE NORTH.
THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON A 101523Z AMSU-B IMAGE. DESPITE THE RECENT IMPROVEMENT, DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN LOW AT 30 KNOTS; HOWEVER, BASED ON THE RECENT IMPROVEMENT IN CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KNOTS.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SEEMS TO INDICATE THAT THE POINT SOURCE ALOFT MAY HAVE DISSOLVED FOR THE TIME BEING BUT EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW REMAINS OVER THE LLCC NONE THE LESS.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES FROM CIMSS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20-30 KNOTS BUT THE OUTFLOW SEEMS TO BE OFFSETTING THIS NEGATIVE FACTOR. TC 01B IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN BAY OF BENGAL. THEREAFTER, TC 01B IS EXPECTED TO TURN POLEWARD AS THE STR WEAKENS DUE TO AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER PAKISTAN AND THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL RE-
CURVE TOWARDS THE MYANMAR/BANGLADESH BOARDER AS MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES INDIA AND THE WESTERN BAY OF BENGAL. TC 01B IS A LARGE CIRCULATION ENCOMPASSING ALMOST THE ENTIRETY OF THE BAY OF BENGAL. THEREFORE, BETA ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SUSTAIN THE NOSE OF THE STEERING STR. THIS EFFECT SHOULD CAUSE THE TC TO TRACK SLIGHTLY FURTHER WESTWARD OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL BEFORE EVENTUALLY RE-CURVING. THIS SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT IN FORECAST TRACK HAS CAUSED THE LANDFALL POSITION TO SHIFT CLOSER TO BANGLADESH.
TC 01B SHOULD INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU 96 DUE TO INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW TAPPED INTO THE WESTERLIES. BY TAU 120 THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL AS A SIGNIFICANT TC. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z, 111500Z AND 112100Z.
MM Weather ,Rangonnewsdaily
RND: :11.5.2013
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